Thursday 9 October 2014

Paddy Power’s influence on the election.


I’m as guilty as anyone else! I love numbers, I need numbers and when they’re hard to get I’ll use anything that’s there! Odds on elections are grand to chat about but they’re not scientific, or are they?


Lynn what are you on about? Well today at 5:30 I got a message from an old friend who messaged me on Facebook to say “There's some money gone on Connaughton today” so I looked and I saw that yeah the odds had changed and changed a lot. John Kelly had tumbled too but of course we had just tweeted the result of the election in my classroom today and you guessed it, Yeah Kelly topped the poll with 3rd and 4th class in Abbeycartron!! Markets had to be influenced!!


Ivan Connaughton - Fianna Fail 1/9
Michael Fitzmaurice - Independent 9/2
John Kelly - Labour 9/1
Marin Kenny - Sinn Fein 12/1
 Maura Hopkins - Fine Gael 14/1
John McDermott - Independent 20/1    
Des Guckian - Independent 25/1
Tom Crosby - Independent 33/1
Emmet Corcoran -Independent 40/1
Gerry O'Boyle - Independent 40/1
Denis O'Brien - Independent 50/1

Previously (last Friday) they were
Ivan Connaughton - Fianna Fail 4/9 
Michael Fitzmaurice - Independent 5/2        
John McDermott - Independent 5/1
Maura Hopkins - Fine Gael 7/1
Martin Kenny - Sinn Fein 9/1
John Kelly - Labour 16/1                  
Des Guckian - Independent 20/1      
Tom Crosby - Independent 25/1        
Gerry O'Boyle - Independent 40/1
Emmet Corcoran - Independent 40/1
Denis O'Brien - Independent 50/1


So why does this happen and does it matter? Well first of all money talks, so if money goes on to a candidate the price falls! It’s obvious enough! So what you say! Well it’s like this the media, print and broadcast are a lazy lot and all of us who have ever done a PR course have been told that! Remember what you were told about a press release? Well it’s all true.


When an interview happens, people are asked questions and we all like to answer the question  we are asked. (fact) To help our answer we use as much info as we can muster to make it sound credible and also to try and be correct. Paddy Power is quoting Joe Bloggs as hot favourite at 2/5 and Mary Snotts is a no hoper at 16/1. They then say "the bookie is rarely wrong in fact I don't know a poor one!!"


In this election there has been such a lack of information that all is being grasped. When a bookie puts a person at odds on then they are talked about, when a pundit is talking about a contest Paddy Power will be quoted, if you’re in the top four of the market you’ll be talked about. If your name is mentioned you’re on the path to success! We back winners, we like winners so when the wind is said to be in your sails it really is in your sails!! The ultimate  self-fulfilling prophecy!   



Candidates have spent €500 on worse things than bets on themselves! 

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